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Forecasting – Production and Operations Management

Planning is a fundamental activity of management. Forecasting forms the basis of planning. It is applicable to making plans for sales and marketing, or scheduling production or manpower requirement, forecasts are extremely important.

WHAT IS FORECASTING?

It is a scientifically calculated guess. It is basic to all planning activity—
(a) Whether it is national, regional, organisational, or functional planning; and
(b) Whether it is a long range plan or a short-range plan.

It is a little more scientific and not crystal gazing exercise. It is based on scientific analysis of past, present and future trends, and also considers present and future actions with their relavant effects. Hence, the impact of past event and it’s relevance to what is happening now and impact in the future. Thus, forecasting takes into account all the three dimensions of time—past, present and future. In spite of all the calculations, forecasting remains a calculated guess. Errors are bound to be there, but it remains the foundation for management planning.

Forecasting is the analysis of internal and external forces that incluence the demand and supply of company’s products or services. The future which is impacted partially by management of the controllable factors. Applying different strategies, multiple scenarios are offered to management for making decisions.

This section covers

• Introduction to Forecasting
• Forecasting Models
• Weighted Moving Average
• Causal Forecasting Models
• Linear Regression Analysis
• Multiple Regression Analysis
• Other Forecasting Methods
• Forecast Error
• Forecast Evaluations
• Forecast Management

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